Everything you need to know about The Wager, explained — from buying single-game sports picks to auditing results and AI sports predictions. Clear, data-first answers that help you act with purpose.
The Wager is a data-first sports betting insights service. Browse the game calendar, choose the matchups you care about, select your buy format, and receive a timestamped prediction with supporting model outputs. Picks are delivered in three stages — Intro, Pick, Close — to show reasoning and outcomes for every selection.
Proof over promise. Predictions come from rigorous models, are publicly auditable, and are presented so you stay in control. No lock-in subscriptions. Verify everything in our Records Hub — timestamped results, ROI by sport/league.
We’re a prediction and insights service — not a sportsbook. Use our verified information on any legal sportsbook of your choice; we do not accept wagers or process bets.
Both. Beginners get discipline-first guidance and a simple buy model. Experienced bettors get league-specific modeling, granular ROI data, and stake guidance when they choose Our Purpose.
Free picks rarely include tracking or accountability. Every Wager prediction is timestamped and auditable; the public Records Hub shows long-run performance with real ROI.
Choice is a feature. Pay-per-pick keeps control and transparency: each purchase, activation, and result is logged to your account.
Data, discipline, repeatability — not emotion. You choose games; we provide structure and evidence so you act deliberately.
Prediction only — for bettors who set their own stake size and execution. (Example price: $4.99.)
Prediction + recommended stake sizing + pick credit if it loses — discipline built in. (Example price: $9.99.)
Autonomy improves user experience and accountability. Pick the leagues, matchups, and days that fit your plan; keep full control of bankroll decisions.
No. No subscriptions or recurring charges — buy single picks as needed.
Yes. The model supports single-game purchases and flexible usage.
Every pick is timestamped and recorded in a public, auditable ledger. We publish rolling performance metrics (win %, ROI). Verify recent results in the Records Hub.
It estimates outcome probabilities, compares them to market odds, and recommends selections only when the math shows positive expected value (+EV). You see the pick, a confidence score, and an “edge” indicator.
Team & player stats, situational context, weather/venue, market data (odds movement, liquidity), real-time feeds (injuries, late scratches), plus derived features from simulations and ensembles. Inputs are date-stamped for auditability.
Both: backtested on historical seasons and continuously updated with live inputs.
Analysts monitor model health and unusual signals. Once a pick locks, it is not edited.
Yes — sport- and often league-specific architectures improve accuracy and interpretability.
Cross-validation, rolling-window backtests, strict holdouts, ensembles, regularization, and live-market stress tests before deployment.
EV compares model probability vs. market odds; +EV indicates long-run advantage. See Bankroll Guide and Glossary.
As one input — useful for line pressure context, not a replacement for model probabilities.
No statistically significant edge: no paid pick delivered; a pick credit is returned automatically with a short reason.
Weekly in steady-state; more frequently during peak windows or when new data sources roll out. Versions are tracked and monitored.
Yes. Each pick includes a timestamped log and a compact set of outputs (odds range, contributing factors).
Yes — live lineup tags, status feeds, and weather are ingested; probabilities and bands adjust before release.
Performance varies by sport and time. We publish rolling metrics and full histories in the Records Hub; past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
Pricing varies by region and format. Example: Your Purpose $4.99; Our Purpose $9.99. Final totals include local taxes/fees at checkout.
Three-part deliverable: Intro (context), Pick (model output + suggested odds range), Close (post-game summary). Notifications appear in-account; you get an email receipt.
We don’t issue cash refunds. With Our Purpose, you receive a pick credit if the selection loses (per published rules) — typically posted within 12–18 hours after result verification.
No. Pay-per-pick only. No recurring billing or hidden fees.
Cards, wallets, local options, and BNPL where available. PCI-compliant processors, tokenization, and encryption; The Wager does not store full card numbers.
Never — unless you explicitly make another purchase.
Gifting not yet supported. Taxes/VAT shown at checkout. Purchases are final after checkout; contact Support immediately for genuine errors before activation.
System safeguards prevent activating the same pick twice.
Non-cash credits applied to your account; redeemable on future purchases; not withdrawable as cash.
Contact Support via Connect if you believe a charge is in error. Repeated/abusive chargebacks may trigger account review.
Single payment method per transaction (for now). We never sell personal data; see Privacy Policy for retention and rights.
Occasional promo codes. Sign up to be notified; terms and expirations apply.
Instantly to your dashboard — progressing Intro → Pick → Close. You’ll get in-account notifications and an email receipt.
In GameDay Studio: choose league → select date → select game(s) → confirm via Double-Check modal. After confirmation, the pick is locked and tracked to your account.
Activated picks remain in your account after resolution. Email is a convenience; your Dashboard is the source of record.
Varies by sport and market conditions — some appear ~36 hours ahead; others as late as 5 minutes before start. We prioritize edge over rigid schedules.
One daily digest email (if you haven’t visited and a pick starts within 30 minutes), plus in-account notifications for each stage.
Open Past Picks to filter by sport/league/date. Rolling metrics (Win %, ROI) are computed over the last 90 active betting days.
Permanent access to purchased picks and their audit trails in your account.
Use any legal sportsbook. You don’t need the exact same line, but staying within the posted odds range preserves tracking consistency.
You can build parlays, but variance increases. We generally recommend disciplined unit staking for long-run control.
We follow published Terms & Conditions for void/cancel outcomes; credits or adjustments post after official confirmation.
Normal. Our picks include a posted odds range (“safe until” band). Large deviations can affect your personal ROI tracking.
All actions sync across devices in near real time. Push notifications are device-specific and configurable.
Contact Support via Connect; include a brief description and Pick ID for fastest resolution.
Purchasing analysis is legal in most places; wagering is governed by your local laws. We provide informational products — you’re responsible for compliance where you live.
Global access with some regional feature/payment differences. We detect restrictions at signup and checkout and show clear notices when applicable.
You must meet the legal gambling age in your jurisdiction (commonly 18, 19, or 21). Higher local minimums apply where required.
We do not sell personal data. We comply with GDPR/CPRA where applicable; users can access, correct, delete, or export their data.
No guarantees of wins or profits. We publish transparent records to inform disciplined decision-making.
Email and phone are sufficient to sign up, but laws, payment requirements, or anti-fraud checks may require additional verification in some regions.
Handled per our Terms & Conditions. Contact Support with relevant pick details; complex cases escalate to our resolution team.
A standardized stake size, often 1–2% of bankroll, to keep results comparable and remove emotional sizing.
EV = (Win probability × Net profit) + (Loss probability × Net loss). +EV indicates long-run advantage.
CLV measures whether your price beats the final market number; consistently beating CLV is a strong skill signal.
Following all picks yields the purest model sample; selective following is valid if you apply consistent filters and discipline.
Define bankroll, set unit size, track performance, and adjust only after material bankroll changes. Never chase losses.
No. Discipline beats size. Units make results scalable across bankrolls.
Our Purpose includes stake sizing and pick-credit protection. We also publish guides and plan interactive tools (unit/EV calculators, CLV tracker).
Requires consistent edge, robust bankroll, variance tolerance, and planning. We provide information — not income guarantees.
We provide data, outputs, and staking logic so you can tail fully or filter intelligently — clarity and discipline win long-term.
Common baseline: 1 unit = 1% of bankroll for beginners. Reduce unit size during drawdowns; if using Our Purpose, follow the provided stake unless you have documented reasons to deviate.
Short samples (<100 bets) are noisy. Several hundred bets per sport/strategy yields more reliable inference. Our 90 active betting days window balances recency and relevance.
Yes — every timestamped pick and result with rolling win %, ROI, and units by sport/league.
Locked and logged before release with a tamper-evident trail, exposed in the Records Hub.
No. Publishing rule: no edge, no pick. Variance exists, but we do not distribute low-EV selections under our governance rules.
Some do, under internal compliance. We never take wagers on behalf of users.
Pay-per-pick control, public audit trails, transparent model outputs, and optional disciplined staking differentiate The Wager from subscription sellers.
Open Records Hub → filter by sport/league → export CSV. Our rolling metrics use a 90-day active window.
Operational efficiency — automated modeling, lean operations, and pay-per-pick packaging — keeps costs honest without compromising verification.
Our Double-Check modal prevents most mistakes. If you believe an activation error occurred, contact Support immediately with the Pick ID.
Not permitted. Reposting or resale violates Terms & Conditions and may result in account action.
You control purchases. For safety, balances are capped at 1,000 picks; unusual activity may trigger verification.
We publish a safe-until odds range. Taking numbers outside that range may diverge from published ROI.
No automated betting or concierge features today; both are under evaluation for future releases.
Yes — when the model identifies edge. Volume varies by sport/event.
Handled per Terms & Conditions. We apply credits or void treatments after official confirmation.
If delivery or logging fails due to a system error, contact Support with Pick IDs and timestamps. We’ll investigate and correct per policy.
Not currently supported. Future controlled features may be offered; until then, individual accounts only.
Evaluated by data availability, model signal quality, and legal feasibility; additions will be announced publicly.
We monitor for fraud, resale, and abusive chargebacks. Verified suspicious activity may result in holds or suspension.
No public API yet; potential partner APIs will be documented and rate-limited if/when released.
We welcome ideas — submit requests on the Connect page or join beta programs when available.
Frequently Asked Questions.
Our sports bettors asked, and we answered.
Everything you need to know about The Wager, explained.
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